Michael Higgins: Trudeau’s legacy is one of chaos and disaster

This government is in the final stages of a death spiral that will end in a federal election sooner rather than later

Published Dec 20, 2024  •  Last updated 13 hours ago  •  4 minute read

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau departs after a cabinet swearing-in ceremony at Rideau Hall in Ottawa, on Friday, Dec. 20, 2024. THE CANADIAN PRESS/Spencer Colby

On Monday, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s future was thrown in doubt. Five days later the Liberal Party is itself in peril. A week really is a long time in politics.

“I’m not thinking about elections,” Rachel Bendayan, the new minister of official languages, said outside Rideau Hall following Trudeau’s cabinet shuffle Friday.

Well, she had better think about it because one is coming.

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NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh issued a statement Friday saying he would no longer support the Liberal party.

“No matter who is leading the Liberal Party, this government’s time is up. We will put forward a clear motion of non-confidence in the next sitting of the House of Commons,” Singh said in his statement.

If Singh goes ahead with his threat then it’s curtains for the Liberal government, although it’s unclear when he might pull the plug.

After Singh’s statement, Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre slammed the NDP leader for failing to vote for a non-confidence motion 11 days ago.

Poilievre also said he was sending a letter to the Governor General asking her to recall Parliament before the end of the year so that a non-confidence motion could be held.

“Justin Trudeau does not have the confidence of Parliament,” he said, pointing out that since the last non-confidence motion, Singh and Bloc Leader Yves-Francois Blanchet had called on Trudeau to resign as had 18 Liberal MPs.

Poilievre’s move is unlikely to succeed but this government is in the final stages of a death spiral that will end in a federal election sooner rather than later.

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Now it’s a question of timing. Parliament isn’t due to sit again until the end of January, so a non-confidence motion could happen shortly after.

One scenario then is for the government to fall in February and we go into a snap election with a campaign lasting between 37 and 51 days.

Who will lead the Liberals into that campaign? Who knows, the prime minister is still ducking the public since ex-finance minister Chrystia Freeland’s scathing resignation letter on Monday.

Trudeau is said to be reflecting on his future and taking advice. Although, if the Globe and Mail is correct he’s only getting advice to stay since Katie Telford, his chief of staff, is reportedly only putting calls of support through to the prime minister.

What a way to run a country.

If Trudeau decides to stay he will lead the Liberals into a spring election massacre. The latest polling aggregate by 338Canada has the Liberals winning 47 seats (down from 153) with the Conservatives at 226.

But Trudeau is deeply unpopular (his disapproval rating continues to rise) and the Liberals could end up losing more seats if he is still at the helm, perhaps even allowing the separatist Bloc to become the Official Opposition in Canada.

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Trudeau’s legacy could be to destroy the Liberal Party and leave the very unity of Canada under threat.

Should Trudeau resign, an interim leader (who would even want the job?) would be left with a very short runway to turn round Liberal fortunes.

“You should never count the Liberal Party of Canada out,” said Steven MacKinnon Friday after becoming the new minister of employment, workforce development and labour.

But that’s probably wishful thinking on his part rather than a realistic view of the current political climate.

Another option is for the prime minister to prorogue Parliament so that a non-confidence motion could not be put forward. In that case, as Tristin Hopper has pointed out, Trudeau could go on clinging to power for months — technically even up to October when an election has to be called.

Some people might scoff at such a suggestion, but who knows? The prime minister isn’t saying. Apart from addressing the party faithful, Trudeau has been in hiding. The man who couldn’t pass a microphone without speaking into it, has finally gone silent.

We don’t know whether he will quit or not. We don’t know whether Parliament will resume in January as expected because Trudeau has the power to prorogue and might use it.

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We don’t know whether Trudeau will be the leader of this country In January when president-elect Donald Trump assumes power and imposes 25 per cent tariffs on Canadian goods as he has threatened.

We don’t know whether the cabinet ministers sworn in Friday will have a job in a few months.

Banana republics are run better than this.

On Friday, Poilievre described the situation as a “clown show”, a “comedy” and a “soap opera.”

But really it’s a tragedy, for this country and for the Liberals.

Liberal MPs know they face being decimated at the next election because of the overwhelming unpopularity of the prime minister. Their fortunes might be slightly improved under a new leader.

But they don’t know what’s going on because the prime minister is “hiding under his desk,” said Poilievre.

Trump has been making lame jokes of late about Canada becoming the 51st state. If Trudeau continues his obduracy in refusing to go, more and more Canadians might warm to Trump’s suggestion.

National Post

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